Although my calendar says it’s been a long time since all that WCS deal started, it feels like everything up to this point began and ended in a flash. Vivid are my memories of all the national and continental finals and the tales they told, from underdogs making their way to the grand final, through “where did all the terrans go” query and to why Korea’s best are not necessarily Korea’s best.
The streams of said tales are now flowing into the grand ocean called Battle.net World Championship, wherein individual drops no longer matter, at least not for the first few hours. The weight of a single name is dwarfed by the importance of representing one’s country well, which itself, is only second to making an entire continent proud. It’s a battle of honor on many levels but as the BWC starts from the general before going down to the specific, so do we.
Europe, Vanguard of the West
Even before the full line-up for the BWC was made clear, the StarCraft community was convinced in one thing: “If the champion is not Korean, he’ll surely be European”. Having in mind that the guys from the old continent have been winning their fair shares of tournaments in 2012, this is not a statement without ground but as in every region, there are winners and there are losers.
The Leaders: Stephano, Nerchio, Vortix
Ironically enough, though the obvious best players in the European clique, Stephano, Nerchio and Vortix all ended up in groups that will make their advancement very difficult. Nevertheless, there is still hope as groups of death are nothing but a morning itch for the seasoned powerhouses.
The Spaniard has been having one blast of an autumn and despite missing every single premier gold, he singlehandedly stole the show at both IEM Cologne and WCS Europe. He faces an all-Zerg group at the BWC and although mirror is not his best match-up, the same is true for his opponents and only Vibe might prove to be a threat.
Stephano and Nerchio on the other hand, are each in a group of death of their own. The champion of Europe shares a podium with HerO, RorO and Idra and knowing the latter’s recent form, he might end up playing both Koreans. Fortunately for him, HerO’s PvZ is not what it used to be and RorO still has a lot to prove so Stephano should breathe slowly – that’s a group that barks harder than it bites.
All this comes to show how Nerchio is the only European in a group nobody dares to predict. The opening match versus Creator has no clear winner nor a potential faceoff with his teammate Scarlett. Poland’s best has had his signature smirk of victory on for a long time but Group H is no laughing matter and might very well wipe it off his face.
The Soldiers: BabyKnight, Lucifron, Grubby, Socke
It’s uncanny how similar BabyKnight, Socke and Grubby are to each other. It’s not only the race they play, but also the way how they’ll go into a tournament, rip a person or two apart, be on their way to a decent run but will fall well before the final mile some time after the tournament is over, we’ll reminisce those moments of emotions but will continue to not consider them prime contenders.
Now that the “same race” thing is out of the way, we add Lucifron and get four people who face almost identical odds and goals. Making or failing the playoffs will be a deed overlooked by the majority of the viewership base and not until reaching the top eight marker and beyond will their run be labeled memorable.
The Fodder: Titan, Lowely
It's not to say that those two are weak by any stretch of the imagination but somebody has to fall before the weekend is over and they are the likeliest candidates: Titan because it’s tough to beat any of Curious, hero[join] and Major and Lowely because he’s simply not made of a clay that can withstand the hammerfall of the BWC playoffs, despite all his recent successes and his more than bright group stage prospects.
Korea, Land of Champions
The ESF Side: Parting, HerO, Curious, Creator
Keeping ourselves to the group line-ups, it’ll not be too wild a statement to say that Parting and Curious are so far ahead of the competition that it’s not even funny. The StarTale duo comes to Shanghai with the unfaltering belief that they cannot lose in the group stage and they’re right to think so. Parting is facing Socke in his first match and despite all the volatility of the mirror, this is still one of Korean’s best matches and if (when?) Socke tastes defeat, Parting will go on to play either Illusion and Fenix in the match-up that is his trademark. The arrogant jerk in me would suggest that it’ll take Parting more time to finish his breakfast than 2-0’ing his group. Curious is set for the same thing and his recent misgivings in Code S or his tad more difficult group are surely to not slow him down.
While the ST boys are set for easy cruising, such is not the case with HerO and Creator who have been dealt the short straws in the group ceremony. HerO’s games against zergs have been on a steady decline and now he has his position further complicated by having to play Stephano in the first game. Creator, on the other hand, is in that group and his future much depends on beating Nerchio in the first round and staying away from late game PvZ.
The KeSPA Side: Rain, RorO, hero[join]
Last month, Rain bailed on Code S to compete at MLG but his BWC opponents won’t have the same luck. Quite the opposite, they will be privileged to fight, struggle and die by the hands of an OSL champion and don’t you dare think it can be otherwise.
So where does this leave RorO and hero[join], the only two Koreans yet unmentioned in the article. Simple, it leaves them under a big ****ing question mark. After WCS Korea, KeSPA players did prove they are no longer second tier Koreans - RorO’s recent Code S results an additional testament for that – but they’re far from a safe bet. This is even more true for hero[join], who will have one very difficult (possibly even two) match(es) against Major and we don’t really have any data that can accurately tell us how good hero’s PvT in fact is.
North America, the Under-Achiever
This is going to be a brutal tournament for the Americans and I would not be surprised if most of them are flying to Shanghai already having lost hope (and I would not be surprised if they don’t admit that). A swift glimpse through tournament results shows that North Americans have not made it to a premier grand final since HuK won MLG Orlando 2011. Nowadays, HuK can no longer be named the prime weapon of the continent but fortunately, there is still strength to be found in the Americans.
In Them We Trust: Scarlett, Vibe
Ever since the WCS NA Continentals, it became very clear what the distribution of power is like in North America: There’s Scarlett and there’s everybody else.
Sasha’s rise to the ultimate North American power has been so swift and so convincing that it can very well carry her even beyond the dangers of Group H. Having won two WCS golds by beating protosses and zergs almost exclusively, there’s certainly a solid reasoning behind that premise. Moonglade is likely to not be a problem, she’s beaten Koreans before and she’s certainly familiar with how Nerchio plays mirrors being his teammate and all. In the group of death or not, if Scarlett finds even the smallest cracks in Nerchio’s and Creator’s plays, she’ll surely be taking the playoffs train.
So if it’s really “Scarlett and everybody else”, what is Vibe doing in here you might ask. My answer to that question is: he’s here because of his luck of the draw. In a group with zergs only, Vibe comes in as a player that made it to two WCS finals largely thanks to his success in mirrors and although a potential faceoff between him and fellow American Suppy will be bloody, there are strong indications that Mr. Scherlong is much more likely to make the playoffs.
In Them We Don’t: Suppy, State, Idra, Insur, HuK, Illusion
And here’s why:
Idra, HuK and Suppy are all under the EG curse which is as we all know very very real and only stays away from Stephano. State and Insur are both the third strongest players in their groups (which, understandably, is not where they want to be). Illusion’s success depends on beating Socke and/or Parting in a match-up in which he hasn’t had a significant victory since April.
The Rest of the World
A year ago, writing this part of the articles would’ve been easier solely because we still heard from many of those players every now and then. Nowadays, they live, play and compete in total obscurity under a continental blanket that hides their true strength.
Those With Chances: Major, SEn
As I type the name of SEn, I realize I only do it because of Taiwanese’s old fame. 2011 was kind to the zerg as he made several top threes including BlizzCon and the two NASLs but nowadays he’s nowhere to be seen. The only exception was WCS Asia and although he did well, his run was nothing more than a reminder that yes, he is still alive and he’s better than the non-Korean Asians, i.e. nothing really new. Where does he stand if put next to Grubby, HuK and KiLLeR however, remains to be seen.
On the other hand, we did see a bit of Major in the recent TSL 4, though his stage time was short-lived. He was the only foreigner to beat a Korean and if he’s done it before, maybe he can do it again. Chances are slim but present nonetheless.
Those Without: Comm, Killer, Mafia, Levin, Moonglade, Fenix
As we’re night the end, I’ll keep it short as there’s nothing too important to be written here anyway. Comm is in an all-Zerg group with mirror supposedly his worst match-up. KiLLeR’s recent record is nothing to be proud of and as of right now, SEn, HuK and Grubby look stronger than him despite not being what you call "tournament favorites". The Australians were dealt the worst hands ever (Mafia is playing Rain first and Moonglade is in Group H). Fenix’s tournament life has been almost nonexistent and Levin is simply outclassed by both Lowely and Lucifron and finishing third gets you nowhere.
Final Predictions
Group A: Parting, Socke over Illusion, Fenix
Group B: Vortix, Vibe over Comm, Suppy
Group C: Sen, Grubby over KiLLer, HuK
Group D: Rain, BabyKnight over State, Mafia
Group E: Stephano, RorO over Idra, HerO
Group F: Curious, hero[join] over TitaN, MajOr
Group G: Lowely, Lucifron over Insur, Levin
Group H: Creator, Nerchio over Scarlett, Moonglade
