Valve is leaving the trampled paths with DotA 2. They are strong enough to do so. If they have success, they will change the whole industry, giving teams and players more options and reduce Twitch's and own3D's power.

Valve is not modest. They are promoting The International simply as "the biggest eSports even of the year". A single-game, 16-team tournament shall be the biggest event of the year? What about DreamHack Winter filling a whole Icehockey stadium? What about WCG with still some hundred players on site? What about ESL's exhibition events at CeBIT and gamescom? What about MLG's events? No, Valve is definitely not modest.

Valve is a new player in eSports business. They have been wagering around due to providing Counter-Strike 1.6, which is likely the most important game for promoting eSports in the last 10 years, but they never actively participated during that phase. Now, with The International held at Valve's home town Seattle, Valve presents itself as the big player in eSports, generously holding the biggest event of the year.

One could easily dampen Valve's statement by labeling it as typical American exaggeration. However, that is too simple and does not display the role Valve is currently playing in the eSports market.

eSports is a teenage Kraken

eSports as a phenomenon is growing on a global scale, yes. But it is not growing in every direction like a spider's web. eSports is more like a teenage Kraken, reaching out to different dicrections with his uncoordinated tentacles one after the other.

These outbursts have made the different waves of growth in eSports. CS 1.6 has opened the transatlantic market, SC:BW the Korean market, WC3 the Chinese and DotA the south east asian market. StarCraft 2, from the very beginning designed to be easy-to-watch, came along with a massive popularization of videostreaming right from the casters and players living rooms.

League of Legends has shown, maybe for the first time in eSports, that a good developer, together with the right strategy and business model, can design an eSports title and create a professional scene from scraps.

Dota 2 now is Valve's playing field for eSports. They have not invented a new game. Valve took the knowledge and efforts that Icefrog put into DotA. The impact of Dota 2 to the eSports sector will be on a different level. And if Dota 2 is a major succes in the long-run, it will turn the eSports industry upside down - once again.

Streaming-dependent business models have their side effects as well

There was a time when the value of a player/team was determined mainly by offline presence. TwitchTV and own3D had this changed. While this development allowed players to gain revenue every day if their stream was popular, it also lead to teams picking players not because of performance, but because of their streaming potential.

Now most eSports companies have fully adapted to this situation and using it to its full extent. MLG's whole business model is dependant of good streaming viewer numbers, ESL is focused on streaming, Riot has used the direct implementation of streams into the client for event promotion first and most successful.

Valve is not attacking Riot. What Valve is doing with Dota 2 is effectively attacking the streaming companies' dominant position. In detail, almost all actions Valve has taken in the last months have had the effect of either reducing Valve's, the teams' and tournaments' dependency on the streams.



The spectator mode has been improved: Hearing caster and co-caster at the same time is now possible. "Although the game is not yet available to public for free, the spectator client has been released in time for The International. The tournament support for Dota 2 TV has been established with a pay-per-view model when it is not The International itself, giving popular tournaments a possibility to make money without streams. The pennants now released for The International give a direct monetary income through stream for the top teams. It's the organisation itself,not the players, who get the money share for the pennants. The sponsors of each team can find its way into the game in form of branded team banners, possibly opening a new promotion path, once again independent of streaming companies.

What is the better growth? Strongly in one direction or distributed?

Established eSports business men who are fully indoctrinated by the current system's successful streaming-dependent growth model have a critical eye on Valve's vision of eSports. "They are slowing down the progression by effectively reducing adverts shown number", some say.

David 'Affentod' Hiltscher from ESL, one of the happy partners of Riot, said in an interview at gamescom that the German company is still critically reviewing a possible entry into Dota 2. They simply don't know what to expect from this new Valve approach of doing eSports.

The International 2012 marks a new massive outburst of the Kraken eSports. Valve is setting new paths. It's doing Rocket Science research for the whole industry by leaving the two-year-old trampled paths of twitching eSports. It's even strong enough to make streaming available with Twitch.TV and own3D at the same time, which is important, as videostreaming will still be the easiest way to get new people into DotA 2.

We will see if it works out in a sustainable manner. After The International, the scene will have 51 TI-free weeks again, and eSports is not a once-in-a-year business. The Industry needs lucrative events every month. Valve is trying to open up new doors for generating revenue and making the gamers the real customers of eSports companies, not the advertising companies.

If all ties are failing and Valve does not revolutionize eSports, they can still fall back to the plan B: Simply bringing Steam to Asia via DotA 2.



More information: The International 2012 coverage