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It’s been one year since we saw Liquid`HerO walk out of that booth, shyly greet the crowd with that charming smile of his and take the DreamHack Winter 2011 championship. A memorable moment but one that everybody expected since before the tournament began.
Lots of things have changed in that one year, though, especially for DreamHack. When previously there were Koreans only, now they are scarce as the tournament itself seems to reject them. Only Valencia 2012 was there to give courage to those who are always considered most powerful but for the most part it was the European gang that stole the glory.
As Jonkoping welcomes the final DreamHack for 2012, Koreans are low in numbers though great in strength. Unfortunately for them, the Europeans are greater in both and are posed for a rough fight. But let’s be calm for now, before the storm begins. Let’s lie back, relax, let’s dream of the winter.
Dreams of Power: Group AStephano, Taeja, TheSTC, Fraer, Elfi
Group A has players that during different periods in the StarCraft 2 history were considered the very best in something. There’s Stephano, still arguably the best foreigner alive. Taeja, who until last month was pointed out as the best terran in the world (and probably still is). And there’s Elfi, who was once believed to be the best PvP-er on the continent. All that garnished with some fraer and TheSTC sauce – players who are both rich on talents but ever poor on premier achievements.
As it stands, the group is one with very obvious stratification of power. After his recent misfortunes at BWC, Stephano returns to a tournament that was not too kind to him in the summer. Nevertheless, this is still Stephano and bringing up one tournament failure as measuring tool is as foolish as betting against him making it to playoffs. Similarly for Taeja: the fact that he’s not winning tournaments every single month and having dropped out of the last Code S is never the sign for slumping. If the group was played in GSL format it might have been a tad risky for the two beasts but with a 6-man round robin with top three advancing they are very much safe.
Not the case with TheSTC, Fraer and Elfi, all of whom are hovering around the same level. Although TheSTC might be more familiar to the casual viewer because of his country of origin, the European protosses are not far behind in terms of skill. What will drag the latter behind, however, is their decent-but-not-great record in all match-ups but PvP and, believe me, every single person on that list is very, very skilled in killing protosses. The larger margin of error gives them higher chances of making it top three but since Stephano and Taeja are likely to be a tall order if they play at their best, not a single mistake must be made against Taeja and the BYOC player.
Dreams of Aiur: Group BBly, Mana, Socke, SaSe, StarNaN
Gosh, just look at that, has there ever been a brighter reincarnation of volatility? You might think “yes” but just wait a few lines, you’ll see you’re a bit wrong.
”Lo, I do send you forth as sheep in the midst of wolves, be ye therefore wise as the serpents, and simple as the doves.”
- Cella, 10:16
Before we go on to everyone’s “favorite” mirror, let’s look at Bly who might have just drawn his luckiest number ever. Being an Acer zerg, the Ukrainian is, by presumption, unfairly good and although he hasn’t had the time to sponge off of Cella’s infinite wisdom, he’s trained in the deadly arts of protoss killing by Nerchio himself. Having Europe’s “other best zerg” as mentor has certainly paid off for Bly and, statistically, he’s most apt at ZvP so one can imagine he’s feeling very good right now, not to mention how he perfectly fits the biblical profile. There’s wisdom in him enough to carry him to one DreamHack grand final already and the simplicity of “don’t die to all-ins, make infestors and brood lords, win” ZvP paradigm (modern, bridged interpretation) can’t be out of his grasp. He also beat Mana at Bucharest so there’s one direct victory to keep his head up even higher.
Back to the promised PvP analysis, which features Socke, Mana, StarNaN and Sase, a peculiar collection of people to pit against each other. All of them are rarely the tournament favorites but never considered group stage drop outs and their PvPs are on the level of the others, namely not that exceptional. They are all known to produce spectacular results when playing their best but can horribly fail just as easily. In fact, if you strip down all their minor peculiarities – like “shows no emotions”, “wears hats” and “can never spell his name properly on the first try” – the four protosses here are almost exactly the same, which introduces an extra level of randomness to this group. True, past tournaments have had their fair share of PvP-heavy groups but there’s always been a clear distinction between winners and losers.
Here, there is none, and if it gets another protoss from the BYOC it’ll likely decompose under the weight of all the unpredictability.
Dreams of Char: Group CNerchio, Dimaga, TLO, Targa, Monchi
Diametrically opposite to Group B is the four-zerg-one-protoss line-up of Group C but, fortunately, this one is easier to see through.
In the land covered in creep, there’s Lord Nerchio, known for his tyrannous laws in mirrors, “you shall not get third” the most famous of all. There is nobody here to oppose his dominion and in his mind, the Polish is already a quarter finalist.
This might sound like a bit of over exaggeration but it really isn’t. Nerchio won Bucharest by absolutely murdering Bly and TLO and went 13-2 in the match-up. At the same time, Targa’s ZvZ record is unstable as bottle of nitroglycerin being dragged through a volcanic tunnel and Dimaga, once the king of ZvZ and the first person to ever beat NesTea in mirror, is now on a long losing streak that’ll be hard to overcome if he welcomes it in his head.
That being said, the competition in Group C will revolve exclusively around the 2nd and 3rd spot as once you exclude Mr. Bloch it’s practically anybody’s game. A safe bet is placing Targa just below Nerchio as he’s been having decent success in DH group stages but one should not forget TLO’s recent success at GD Invitational and that Dimaga is actually goddamn Dimaga, a DH Summer finalist and a crushing mass of muscle, cheer and skill and there aren’t Koreans to disrupt his day.
Alas, poor Monchi, how you must wish to be the Bly of this group…
Dreams of Death: Group DThorzain, Naniwa, ForGG, HerO, Ret
Finally, there it is! The ultimate culling of Jonkoping, the group that has harbored players, all but one of whom have enjoyed deep DreamHack runs at one point or another.
Atop stands HerO, the reigning Winter champion. HerO has been having some hard months of not living up to the standards of the past but BWC showed that he might be back to his previous shape. If he could break the curse of always losing to Stephano, he is surely capable of graduating from another Group of Death. Always the emotional player, HerO has the luck of travelling to Sweden powered by a return to a country that so warmly welcomed him the last time.
But there’s always a cruel twist of fate as the defending champion is in a group with home-turf players Thorzain and Naniwa. Historically, competition in Sweden has given Thorzain more joy than harm and the EG terran has a DH Stockholm and WCS Sweden trophies to prove that, though the level of opposition at those was nowhere near Winter 2012.
Naniwa, on the other hand, has been laying low since he took the exit out of the GSL and his recent Lone Star Clash 2 run was not exactly one that you’ll give as an example of success. Despite all the glory and renown surrounding Naniwa’s name, the Swede might actually end in the bottom part of the group. Same goes for Ret who’s been having a dreadful second part of the year after finishing fourth in Stockholm and, as usual, he’s not a basket in which you can put all your eggs. It’s always been “do good or go home early” for the Dutchman and considering who he shares a group with, it’ll likely be the latter for him by the end of the day.
Last but not least is Millenium’s ForGG, the terran that is an absolute machine in foreign tournaments without winning any of them. Silver at Valencia and ESWC as well as bronze at Assembly Summer must have made him hungry enough that he will not stop before the competition is leveled.
