EPICENTER: Moscow is rapidly approaching, starting October 17th and ending October 23rd--you can find the full schedule here. The eight team, $500,000 event is taking place in Moscow, Russia, in the VTB Ice Hall arena. The event has a $250,000 prize for the first place team. With the two groups recently being announced, it seems fitting to preview and predict the results of the event.
The top three teams of each group head through to the playoffs; first place goes to semifinals, second and third go to quarterfinals. First of all, let's look at the groups:
Group A:
G2 eSports
Ninjas in Pyjamas
Natus Vincere
Team Dignitas
Group B:
Virtus.pro
SK Gaming
Fnatic
Hellraisers
Group A Predictions
1. Natus Vincere
It almost seemed like Na`Vi made the wrong decision signing s1mple as the initial results weren't favourable for the CIS team. Despite the all-star roster featuring players such as Ladislav "GuardiaN" Kovács and the 1.6 legend and pistol king Ioann "Edward" Sukhariev, the matches just weren't being won as expected from the dream team.
For example, the Starladder Season 2 Finals. With Na`Vi making their LAN debut with new player s1mple, they had the crowd behind them and were playing on home soil. However, despite being tipped to win the tournament, Natus Vincere lost best of ones to both TyLoo and Astralis, and exited the tournament early on. Results like this are not expected or a team with so much talent, especially on home turf.
Of course, Astralis were on good form at the time, and TyLoo always seems to pull off upsets on LAN. It's also hard to insult Na`Vi for their bad performances since they hadn't had long with s1mple before the event, and you could say the bad performance was a one-off. With s1mple only just joining the team, it's understandable that they hadn't gelled together yet.
However, they proved their worth at ESL One: New York and walked out as champions, and it's likely they will do the same here. Despite having a team like Ninjas in Pyjamas in their group, they should have enough quality to top the group and move on to the semifinals.
2. Ninjas in Pyjamas
Ninjas in Pyjamas looked to make an impact at ESL One: Cologne 2016, with some analysts even naming them as a potential winner. In a group with Natus Vincere, Optic Gaming and Flipsid3 Tactics, NiP started off well by beating Optic in a best-of-one on Dust II. However they couldn't carry over the momentum as they lost to Natus Vincere in another best-of-one. That loss send them into the elimination match against Flipsid3 Tactics, where for the first time ever Ninjas in Pyjamas were eliminated in the group stages of a Major.
With a catastrophic result at the Major, fans were speculating a roster change for the Swedish team.
In a way, that happened. On 17th August 2016, in an announcement by the Ninjas in Pyjamas, Jacob ”Pyth” Mourujarvi was sidelined due to an injury which was leading him to experience reduced mobility in his right hand. Joakim ”disco doplan” Gidetun did well as a stand-in for Pyth, but when the injury seemed to be worse than expected and when Joakim had to go back to playing for Epsilon eSports, a new player was brought in as a long-term stand-in: Maikel "Maikelele" Bill. He was only asked to play for two tournaments to start: the ESL Pro League Season 4 and the StarLadder i-League Season 2 Finals. Results started to come in for the Ninjas, and soon they became the first team to win a Major with a stand-in when they beat G2 eSports 2-0 in the final of the StarLadder Season 2 Finals. It wasn't like Maikelele had been a spot filler, he had put in an amazing performance, winning several clutches for the team and having good games throughout the tournament.
With Maikelele back with the Ninjas for a few more tournaments including EPICENTER, the Ninjas are looking very strong and are likely to take the second spot in the group, just falling under Natus Vincere. NiP should be too strong for out-of-form G2 eSports, and they have the talent to beat Team Dignitas.
3. Team Dignitas
Team Dignitas has not been a top team for a long time. They aren't the team they used to be, the team that finished 3-4th at ESL One: Cologne 2014. They did have the chance to replicate these results at ESL One: Cologne and did pick up a win against other Danish team Astralis, but they were eliminated in the group stages.
However, on May 19th 2016 a trade was made between the two Danish teams of Team Dignitas and Astralis. Markus "Kjaerbye" Kjærbye was traded to Astralis for René "cajunb" Borg. Five days later, Team Dignitas got a new coach: Casper "ruggah" Due. Then on July 15th, Emil "Magiskb0Y" Reif joined Dignitas, and things looked to go up from here.
Recently Dignitas have had some good results, including wins against Astralis and a 2-0 win against Swedish superstar team Godsent, just to name a few. Dignitas seem to be on the way up, and since G2 eSports are out of form right now, Dignitas could find their way into the playoffs of EPICENTER: Moscow.
4. G2 eSports
As Duncan "Thorin" Shields picked up in an edition of Thorin's Threads, G2 eSports have had some great runs in tournaments this year, and this was their time to shine. They had a huge chance to carry some of the momentum they picked up at the ECS Season 1 Finals earlier this year into ESL One: Cologne, but they bombed out of the Group of Death 0-2, with losses to Major champions SK Gaming and the old Fnatic. They had a bad performance at the first season of ELeague, where they lost in the group stages again, but looked like a completely different team at Starladder Season 2, where they came second behind Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Cue an invitation to ESL One: New York, their huge chance to carry that momentum over and to prove they can hang with the top teams. Once again G2 were sent home early as they went 0-3 in the group stage with losses to Team Liquid, Astralis, and an absolute hammering from Optic Gaming. G2 came into the tournament with huge hopes, and left without a single win.
There are so many teams coming up which look amazing: Godsent have an all-star roster but are yet to find their groove; Na`Vi proved that they've pulled the trigger with their team; Virtus.pro have returned to their plow ways. They could even see themselves bottom of the group at EPICENTER: Mowcow with a loss to Team Dignitas if they don't pick up their game soon enough. A run of bad form has led me to put G2 eSports at the bottom of Group A.
Group B Predictions
1. Virtus.pro
While teams like G2 eSports and Astralis had their moment to shine and failed to impress, Virtus.pro definitely saw their moment and pounced on it.
After being relegated to the ESL Premier Division by Penta, Virtus.pro started off their return to greatness with a solid performance at ESL One: Cologne, coming 3-4th after losing to SK Gaming in the semifinals. They carried on this momentum to win the first season of ELeague, losing an average of only nine rounds per map, a dominate performance from the Polish team.
With SK Gaming taking a hit after Fernando "fer" Alvarenga's injury, and with the Swedish shuffle leaving both Fnatic and Godsent in a mess, Virtus.pro took their chance to become the world's best team, and they did just that. They won their way back into the ESL Pro League with a win over Godsent in the Wildcard match, and then won Dreamhack Bucharest 2016.
ESL One: New York was Virtus.pro's final proving ground. Were they just the "interim best in the world" as some were saying, or were they the top team in the world? Virtus.pro proved themselves, managing to beat SK Gaming and just missing out on the title to Natus Vincere.
Once again, this is Virtus.pro's chance to prove themselves. Another win over SK Gaming will surely put them ahead, and winning this event can definitely make them seem like the legitimate best team in the world. I think Virtus.pro will do just that and will beat SK Gaming and whoever else they may face, and I think Virtus.pro are definitely one of the top picks to win the event.
2. SK Gaming
The story of SK Gaming truely is an extraordinary one. Being the underdogs at MLG Columbus 2016, the team who were then called Luminosity Gaming went on to win the Major. That included the amazing comeback against Team Liquid, who were dominating the game 15-9. "How do you come back from this?" Anders Blume asked, and Marcelo "coldzera" David replied with his iconic jumping AWP double kill and overall 4k on the round. SK Gaming then went on to win Columbus, and then they went on to win ESL One: Cologne 2016 against Team Liquid in the final (the first ever full NA Major final).
SK Gaming have had an astonishing story, but it all went downhill after Fernando "fer" Alvarenga was sidelined due to ear surgery in order to prevent a potential tumour risk. Fer was unable to play for two months, and in these two months things really did not go well for SK Gaming. The Major champions ended up losing 16-0 to Australian team Renegades, with rumours emerging that Gabriel 'FalleN' Toledo shouted at his teammates. Marcelo "coldzera" David then tweeted that Gustavo 'SHOOWTiME' Gonçalves was the reason for the loss. However, SK Gaming still ended September with only five losses--a very good record.
Fer returned two weeks prior to ESL One: New York, and results started to come back in for the Brazilian team. SK picked up multiple wins in the ESL Pro League and looked to be in great form heading into New York.
SK Gaming were tipped to win ESL One: New York, and as the event began they looked to do just that. They started with a win against Astralis in a competitive match which ended 16-13, and they also beat OpTic Gaming 16-10. However, a loss against Natus Vincere meant that they would face Virtus.pro, a win resulting in a semifinal spot. SK Gaming managed to pull off the win against Virtus.pro, but they then met the Polish squad again in the semifinals, where this time Virtus.pro managed to beat SK in a best-of-three, ending 2-1 to the Polish team.
Considering that SK find themselves in the same group as Virtus.pro, I think history will repeat itself and Virtus.pro will pick up another win; SK Gaming will come second in their group.
3. Fnatic
Fnatic is a monopoly of eSports. Pretty much every game where there is a somewhat big scene, the name Fnatic is either heard or has been heard. Fnatic has left their mark wherever they have gone; they have a big history in League of Legends, an Overwatch team, a Heroes of the Storm team, a Dota 2 team, and of course their iconic CS:GO team.
However, their iconic team has fallen apart. When Olof "Olofmeister" Kajbjer had to step down for a short period due to a wrist injury, which was announced April 8th, Fnatic failed to find success. But when Olofmeister made his return just before ESL One: Cologne 2016, Fnatic dominated their ELeague group.
Despite their semifinal finish at ESL One: Cologne 2016, the iconic Swedish team was split apart on August 15th when flusha, JW, and KRiMZ left to join Godsent. Twist and Lekr0 joined Fnatic, and wenton moved up to the active line-up to fill the three slots. Fnatic's form seems to have improved since the trade.
Recent results from Fnatic have been decent, but not good enough to beat SK Gaming and Virtus.pro, the current top two teams in the world. They should be able to beat Hellraisers and advance to the quarterfinals due to the fact that the talent they have outmatches Hellraiser's roster.
4. Hellraisers
There is no doubt Hellraisers come into this tournament as the ultimate underdogs. In a group with some of the best three teams in the world, it's almost impossible to think that Hellraisers can come away from the tournaments having advanced to the playoffs.
Hellraisers are the underdogs for a number of reasons. One, the other teams in the tournament are definitely some of the top teams in the world, both talent-wise and overall. Their group contains the top two teams in the world, plus a team with two players who have won a Major. It seems very unlikely that Hellraisers can beat one of these teams with the talent they have.
Another reason is that despite winning the qualifiers for this event, Hellraisers haven't had a good run in a big tournament since May 7th when they won the ESEA Season 21: Premier Division Europe Finals. They carried on their momentum to come second in the Dreamhack Tours just a week later, but since then Hellraisers have dropped off a bit, and they haven't really got much momentum to carry them into this tournament.
In conclusion, it seems virtually impossible for Hellraisers to have a good run in this tournament due to not having much momentum and the fact that these teams are Major-winning teams, whereas Hellraisers just aren't that tier. Hellraisers could potentially score an upset, but it is pretty unlikely, which leads me to put them in fourth place.
