At this week’s Direct, Nintendo reminded us that Mario is middle-aged. Celebrating the iconic mascot’s 40th birthday, Nintendo announced a slew of new Mario content across games and movies.

Shigeru Miyamoto and Illumination CEO Chris Meledandri teamed up to show off a first look at the next animated film, The Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie. As synergy dictated, Nintendo also announced that Super Mario Galaxy and Super Mario Galaxy 2 are coming to the Switch and Switch 2, in a physical edition and sold digitally in the eShop. To go with that release there will also be two new Amiibo. Then came the announcement of Mario Tennis Fever, and synergy triumphed once again, as Wonder Seeds from 2023’s Super Mario Bros. Wonder were shown to play a role on the court. Yoshi even showed up at the end for Yoshi and the Mysterious Book. The one thing we didn't see? The merest hint of a new 3D Mario game.

This whole celebration is built on shaky foundations. Super Mario Bros. is 40 years old in 2025, true. But the Mario Bros. arcade game debuted 42 years ago, and Donkey Kong, Mario's first appearance, is 44 years old.

I'm Still Asking: Where Is 3D Mario?!?

If we’re being honest, I may have had faulty expectations. I thought we might see a new 3D Mario game announced as early as 2019. Nintendo had set the precedent with the Mario Galaxy games that, when it found a really rich idea, it could put out two games in quick succession. The first Mario Galaxy dropped in 2007 and Mario Galaxy 2 touched down in 2010 — the shortest gap ever between new 3D Mario games at two-and-a-half years.

Super Mario Odyssey seemed like similarly fertile ground. Mario could take over a bunch of different creatures and items in the 2017 game, but it didn’t seem like Nintendo had by any means exhausted the mechanic. I expected a quicker, Majora’s Mask-style turnaround that kept many of the same assets and mechanics but offered a new collection of levels and possessibles.

Instead, we’re now in the longest drought between 3D Mario releases ever, and have been for some time. The previous record was the six-year gap between Super Mario 64 and Sunshine. We blew past that milestone in 2023, and are now nearing eight years since Odyssey. That would be more okay if Nintendo had said literally anything about what’s next. Instead, Mario’s future is shrouded in mystery.

The Donkey Kong Bananza Conundrum

It would be one thing if we knew that the Odyssey team was heads down, working on the next 3D Mario. But that team was also represented at the recent Direct, with a trailer for new DLC for Nintendo's flagship Switch 2 title, Donkey Kong Bananza. The Odyssey team shifting to a different series leaves Mario’s future in a strange place. Who is stewarding Nintendo’s most iconic character for the Switch 2 generation?

Well, Nintendo makes this harder to determine than most developers, since most of its first-party games are merely credited to Nintendo Entertainment Planning & Development (or, more simply, EPD). Though that might sound specific, it really isn’t. EPD is credited as a developer or co-developer on most of the first-party Nintendo games developed in the last ten years, everything from The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild to Super Mario Odyssey, from Mario Kart World to Emio — The Smiling Man: Famicom Detective Club. There are obviously multiple teams working within EPD — like at any major studio that has multiple games cooking at one time — and so it’s difficult to say who made what.

Capcom, Valve, and Obsidian (to name a few) all work the same way.

Former Nintendo developer Ken Watanabe recently said that Nintendo doesn't really care about IP, and just fits gameplay ideas to the best-suited franchise. That generally seems like good practice, but does it apply even to Mario? Do the Odyssey team's best ideas fitting Donkey Kong mean that we just won't see a new Mario game for the foreseeable future? That seems impossible. But, hey, so did going eight years without a new Mario in the first place.